A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
