1. The Villa Heist: Rogers & Emery's Masterclass
Are match outcomes sometimes deceive? That is the question. Villa's run of victories was extended versus Manchester United, but so did the lingering concerns. Statistically, they were inferior by several measures – fewer shots (12-15), a smaller share of the ball (43-57), fewer big chances (2-3). As usual, the victory was by a narrow margin. Consistently, the xG metric painted a different picture: analysis indicates United were narrowly ahead 1.31-1.02. Yet the reality is games are not won by xG. They are won by solid teamwork, astute coaching and sparkling skill – and Villa have all three. The young forward may be their only star, but he’s delivering with festive regularity. Unai Emery is shrewd, battle-hardened, streets ahead of Ruben Amorim. The fact Rogers took advantage from a positional error, this was almost certainly because the coach had detected that his opponent was uncomfortable, and instructed his winger to take up a wide position, drive inside and cause him problems. Talent and management, working together.
2. The Amorim Conundrum: Still Searching for Answers
When Manchester United beat Brighton 4-2 in late October, their fans felt optimism return. They managed three league games consecutively for the maiden instance under Ruben Amorim. They ascended to fourth. And the wins were solid results – over Brighton (a side they often struggle against), Liverpool (away!) and Sunderland (at Old Trafford, against a promoted club, but still – an untroubled victory). The goalkeeper was reassuring, the attack was exciting and there was a positive mood. But then United slipped into a slump. In a run of eight matches, only two victories, six disappointing results. In the recent fixture they were the better team without ever looking like winning. Yes, the Brazilian scored a fine effort, but he also missed a sitter. Yes, United were hit by fitness issues (to important midfielders), but they were punished for defensive errors. Following over a year in England, the manager has yet to solve how to claim three points.
3. Below-Par Gunners Get on Their Grind
It was a late Saturday start on the festive weekend but a glaring absence of finesse in the attacking areas made for a sobering evening. For Everton, the issue was predictable with key attackers absent, and the experienced winger failing to inspire an entire team single-handedly. In many respects it is remarkable that Everton occupied a European spot in the table recently given they have played the entire season without a decent striker. For Arsenal and the Spanish coach, while he relished a hard-fought three points and ascending to the summit of the table, the problem should be of similar concern given their designs on the Premier League. He stated that victories will inevitably grow more comfortable with hard work and perseverance. But it is fairly soon in the season for a team that can start with international stars, while leaving talented players on the bench, to be dependent on scrappy victories.
4. Pep's Christmas Weight Watch at City
On Christmas Day Pep Guardiola will conduct fitness tests to ensure his Manchester City players have not overdone the festive fare. He explained the players asked to have a rest day after their recent victory but he declined because the performance was insufficient. So it's recovery, sessions for the fringe men, and following a short break, then two days to prepare for the upcoming match. Guardiola detailed how improvements can be made. “I excel at analyzing what happens in the game, where are the spaces – if the players were in these positions, we could create more.” Guardiola will also enjoy a rest: “I'm taking a break with the family to relax. I'll visit Barcelona – I recommend it, the food is superb.”
5. Liverpool's Joy Tempered by Isak Blow
Isak's clinical effort at Tottenham felt, for a brief instant, as a turning point. This was the very purpose Liverpool invested heavily for him to do, to break tight games with his movement and range of finishing, and the confidence with which he clipped in from a neat pass boded superbly. So the image of him leaving immediately, following a rash challenge, was a significant blow for the Dutch coach and a shame for any neutral who would like to see a top-class forward hit full tilt again. Reports suggest Isak has sustained a fractured leg and he could be in for a lengthy period on the sidelines. It would be a huge loss with Liverpool having quietly moved into the upper echelons, putting together a string of positive results featuring Isak’s maiden league strikes in their colours. Their prospects appear tied up with those of their record signing.
6. Did Chelsea Get Away with One?
Managers often moan about contentious refereeing decisions as a means of diverting the narrative from matters they want to keep private. The numerous points Newcastle have failed to secure from leading situations this season is a prime example. The Newcastle boss certainly did not seem overly keen to mention that costly trend following his side’s inability to hold onto a 2-0 lead against Chelsea in a game they eventually tied. Yet the Magpies' boss was surely justified in criticising a decision made by the match officials not to award his team a penalty following a blatant body check on the England international. With the score then 2-1, a spot-kick could have changed the narrative. Was the decision to offer the opposing player the leeway informed by past incidents for being expert at drawing contact and sometimes going down too easily? The take of a well-known analyst was notable. “He sees the challenge coming,” he said. “He's prepared for the impact and he's ready. I think he's looking for the foul. But the strength of the challenge there … it constitutes a foul.”
7. A 99.17% Certainty
Brentford’s first away win this season spelled joy for the Bees' boss. Rather than celebrate, Andrews spoke kindly about Wolves, the club he joined at 16. “I spent nine years here,” he said. Wolves’ situation is truly alarming; statistical models state – maybe optimistically – their chances of relegation at virtually certain, leaving little tangible to fight for beyond honour. A experienced defender brutally spelled out|bluntly outlined|frankly
